Papers

Preprints of most papers are on arXiv.
Here is a BibTeX file with my papers.
An asterisk = student coauthor; dagger = postdoctoral coauthor.

Published/accepted

Charles R. Doss and Jared D. Huling’s contribution to the discussion of ‘Augmented balancing weights as linear regression' by Bruns-Smith, Dukes, Feller, and Ogburn
Doss, C. R. and Huling, J. D. (2026). Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B, 88(3):728–730.
journal
bibtex
@article{doss2026jrssbdiscussion,
  author  = {Doss, Charles R. and Huling, Jared D.},
  title   = {Charles R. Doss and Jared D. Huling's contribution to the discussion of `Augmented balancing weights as linear regression' by Bruns-Smith, Dukes, Feller, and Ogburn},
  journal = {Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B},
  year    = {2026},
  volume  = {88},
  number  = {3},
  pages   = {728--730},
  doi     = {10.1093/jrsssb/qkag024}
}
causal inference
Ice Cream Doesn’t Cause Drowning: Benchmarking LLMs Against Statistical Pitfalls in Causal Inference
Du, J., Chen, L., Xian, X., Luo, A., Tian, F., Wang, G., Doss, C. R., Shen, X., and Ding, J. (2026). International Conference on Learning Representations (ICLR).
arXiv
bibtex
@inproceedings{du2026icecream,
  author        = {Du, Jin and Chen, Li and Xian, Xun and Luo, An and Tian, Fangqiao and Wang, Ganghua and Doss, Charles R. and Shen, Xiaotong and Ding, Jie},
  title         = {Ice Cream Doesn't Cause Drowning: Benchmarking {LLMs} Against Statistical Pitfalls in Causal Inference},
  booktitle     = {International Conference on Learning Representations (ICLR)},
  year          = {2026},
  eprint        = {2505.13770},
  archiveprefix = {arXiv}
}
LLM evaluation causal inference
Doubly robust pointwise confidence intervals for a monotonic continuous treatment effect curve
Doss, C. R. (2026). To appear in Journal of the American Statistical Association (Theory and Methods).
arXiv journal DRDRmonoLRT (R package)
bibtex
@article{doss2026drci,
  author        = {Doss, Charles R.},
  title         = {Doubly robust pointwise confidence intervals for a monotonic continuous treatment effect curve},
  journal       = {Journal of the American Statistical Association},
  year          = {2026},
  note          = {Theory and Methods},
  doi           = {10.1080/01621459.2026.2639735},
  eprint        = {2508.08415},
  archiveprefix = {arXiv}
}
causal inference shape constraints
Dynamic linear models for wastewater-based epidemiology with missing values: an application to COVID-19 surveillance
Ouyang, D.*, Chung, L., Osborn, M. J., Schacker, T. W., and Doss, C. R. (2025). Data Science in Science, 4(1).
journal
bibtex
@article{ouyang2025dlm,
  author  = {Ouyang, Difan and Chung, Lappui and Osborn, Mark J. and Schacker, Timothy W. and Doss, Charles R.},
  title   = {Dynamic linear models for wastewater-based epidemiology with missing values: an application to {COVID-19} surveillance},
  journal = {Data Science in Science},
  year    = {2025},
  volume  = {4},
  number  = {1},
  doi     = {10.1080/26941899.2025.2562199}
}
wastewater epidemiology time series and state-space models
A nonparametric doubly robust test for a continuous treatment effect
Doss, C. R., Weng, G.*, Wang, L., Moscovice, I., and Chantarat, T.* (2024). The Annals of Statistics, 52(4):1592–1615.
arXiv journal CRAN: DRDRtest
bibtex
@article{doss2024drtest,
  author        = {Doss, Charles R. and Weng, Guangwei and Wang, Lan and Moscovice, Ira and Chantarat, Tongtan},
  title         = {A nonparametric doubly robust test for a continuous treatment effect},
  journal       = {The Annals of Statistics},
  year          = {2024},
  volume        = {52},
  number        = {4},
  pages         = {1592--1615},
  doi           = {10.1214/24-aos2405},
  eprint        = {2202.03369},
  archiveprefix = {arXiv}
}
causal inference
Non-parametric subset scanning for detection of heteroscedasticity
Doss, C. R. and McFowland III, E. (2022). Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics, 31(3):813–823.
journal
bibtex
@article{doss2022subsetscan,
  author  = {Doss, Charles R. and McFowland III, Edward},
  title   = {Non-parametric subset scanning for detection of heteroscedasticity},
  journal = {Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics},
  year    = {2022},
  volume  = {31},
  number  = {3},
  pages   = {813--823},
  doi     = {10.1080/10618600.2022.2026779}
}
changepoint and anomaly detection
An explicit mean-covariance parameterization for multivariate response linear regression
Molstad, A. J.*, Weng, G.*, Doss, C. R., and Rothman, A. J. (2021). Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics, 30(3):612–621.
arXiv journal
bibtex
@article{molstad2021meancov,
  author        = {Molstad, Aaron J. and Weng, Guangwei and Doss, Charles R. and Rothman, Adam J.},
  title         = {An explicit mean-covariance parameterization for multivariate response linear regression},
  journal       = {Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics},
  year          = {2021},
  volume        = {30},
  number        = {3},
  pages         = {612--621},
  doi           = {10.1080/10618600.2020.1853551},
  eprint        = {1808.10558},
  archiveprefix = {arXiv}
}
multivariate regression
Unlinked monotone regression
Balabdaoui, F., Doss, C. R., and Durot, C. (2021). Journal of Machine Learning Research, 22(172):1–60.
arXiv journal CRAN: UMR
bibtex
@article{balabdaoui2021unlinked,
  author        = {Balabdaoui, Fadoua and Doss, Charles R. and Durot, C{\'e}cile},
  title         = {Unlinked monotone regression},
  journal       = {Journal of Machine Learning Research},
  year          = {2021},
  volume        = {22},
  number        = {172},
  pages         = {1--60},
  url           = {https://jmlr.org/papers/v22/20-689.html},
  eprint        = {2007.00830},
  archiveprefix = {arXiv}
}
shape constraints
Bracketing numbers of convex and \(m\)-monotone functions on polytopes
Doss, C. R. (2020). Journal of Approximation Theory, 256:105425.
arXiv journal
bibtex
@article{doss2020bracketing,
  author        = {Doss, Charles R.},
  title         = {Bracketing numbers of convex and $m$-monotone functions on polytopes},
  journal       = {Journal of Approximation Theory},
  year          = {2020},
  volume        = {256},
  pages         = {105425},
  doi           = {10.1016/j.jat.2020.105425},
  eprint        = {1506.00034},
  archiveprefix = {arXiv}
}
empirical processes shape constraints
Concave regression: value-constrained estimation and likelihood ratio-based inference
Doss, C. R. (2019). Mathematical Programming, 174(1–2):5–39.
arXiv journal
bibtex
@article{doss2019concave,
  author        = {Doss, Charles R.},
  title         = {Concave regression: value-constrained estimation and likelihood ratio-based inference},
  journal       = {Mathematical Programming},
  year          = {2019},
  volume        = {174},
  number        = {1--2},
  pages         = {5--39},
  doi           = {10.1007/s10107-018-1338-5},
  eprint        = {1805.09873},
  archiveprefix = {arXiv}
}
shape constraints
Inference for the mode of a log-concave density
Doss, C. R. and Wellner, J. A. (2019). The Annals of Statistics, 47(5):2950–2976.
arXiv journal CRAN: logcondens.mode
bibtex
@article{doss2019mode,
  author        = {Doss, Charles R. and Wellner, Jon A.},
  title         = {Inference for the mode of a log-concave density},
  journal       = {The Annals of Statistics},
  year          = {2019},
  volume        = {47},
  number        = {5},
  pages         = {2950--2976},
  doi           = {10.1214/18-aos1770},
  eprint        = {1611.10348},
  archiveprefix = {arXiv}
}
shape constraints density estimation
Univariate log-concave density estimation with symmetry or modal constraints
Doss, C. R. and Wellner, J. A. (2019). Electronic Journal of Statistics, 13(2):2391–2461.
arXiv journal CRAN: logcondens.mode
bibtex
@article{doss2019symmetric,
  author        = {Doss, Charles R. and Wellner, Jon A.},
  title         = {Univariate log-concave density estimation with symmetry or modal constraints},
  journal       = {Electronic Journal of Statistics},
  year          = {2019},
  volume        = {13},
  number        = {2},
  pages         = {2391--2461},
  doi           = {10.1214/19-ejs1574},
  eprint        = {1611.10335},
  archiveprefix = {arXiv}
}
shape constraints density estimation
Bandwidth selection for kernel density estimators of multivariate level sets and highest density regions
Doss, C. R. and Weng, G.* (2018). Electronic Journal of Statistics, 12(2):4313–4376.
arXiv journal CRAN: lsbs
bibtex
@article{doss2018bandwidth,
  author        = {Doss, Charles R. and Weng, Guangwei},
  title         = {Bandwidth selection for kernel density estimators of multivariate level sets and highest density regions},
  journal       = {Electronic Journal of Statistics},
  year          = {2018},
  volume        = {12},
  number        = {2},
  pages         = {4313--4376},
  doi           = {10.1214/18-ejs1501},
  eprint        = {1806.00731},
  archiveprefix = {arXiv}
}
density estimation
Inference for a two-component mixture of symmetric distributions under log-concavity
Balabdaoui, F. and Doss, C. R. (2018). Bernoulli, 24(2):1053–1071.
arXiv journal
bibtex
@article{balabdaoui2018mixture,
  author        = {Balabdaoui, Fadoua and Doss, Charles R.},
  title         = {Inference for a two-component mixture of symmetric distributions under log-concavity},
  journal       = {Bernoulli},
  year          = {2018},
  volume        = {24},
  number        = {2},
  pages         = {1053--1071},
  doi           = {10.3150/16-bej864},
  eprint        = {1411.4708},
  archiveprefix = {arXiv}
}
shape constraints density estimation
Global rates of convergence of the MLEs of log-concave and \(s\)-concave densities
Doss, C. R. and Wellner, J. A. (2016). The Annals of Statistics, 44(3):954–981.
arXiv journal
bibtex
@article{doss2016rates,
  author        = {Doss, Charles R. and Wellner, Jon A.},
  title         = {Global rates of convergence of the {MLEs} of log-concave and $s$-concave densities},
  journal       = {The Annals of Statistics},
  year          = {2016},
  volume        = {44},
  number        = {3},
  pages         = {954--981},
  doi           = {10.1214/15-aos1394},
  eprint        = {1306.1438},
  archiveprefix = {arXiv}
}
shape constraints density estimation empirical processes
Markov chain Monte Carlo estimation of quantiles
Doss, C. R., Flegal, J. M., Jones, G. L., and Neath, R. C. (2014). Electronic Journal of Statistics, 8(2):2448–2478.
arXiv journal
bibtex
@article{doss2014mcmc,
  author        = {Doss, Charles R. and Flegal, James M. and Jones, Galin L. and Neath, Ronald C.},
  title         = {{Markov} chain {Monte Carlo} estimation of quantiles},
  journal       = {Electronic Journal of Statistics},
  year          = {2014},
  volume        = {8},
  number        = {2},
  pages         = {2448--2478},
  doi           = {10.1214/14-ejs957},
  eprint        = {1207.6432},
  archiveprefix = {arXiv}
}
MCMC
Fitting birth-death processes to panel data with applications to bacterial DNA fingerprinting
Doss, C. R., Suchard, M. A., Holmes, I., Kato-Maeda, M., and Minin, V. N. (2013). The Annals of Applied Statistics, 7(4):2315–2335.
arXiv journal CRAN: DOBAD
bibtex
@article{doss2013dobad,
  author        = {Doss, Charles R. and Suchard, Marc A. and Holmes, Ian and Kato-Maeda, Midori and Minin, Vladimir N.},
  title         = {Fitting birth-death processes to panel data with applications to bacterial {DNA} fingerprinting},
  journal       = {The Annals of Applied Statistics},
  year          = {2013},
  volume        = {7},
  number        = {4},
  pages         = {2315--2335},
  doi           = {10.1214/13-aoas673},
  eprint        = {1009.0893},
  archiveprefix = {arXiv}
}
birth-death processes

Submitted and preprints

Estimation of heterogeneous principal effects under principal ignorability
Zhang, R.*, Doss, C. R., and Huling, J. D. (2026). Submitted.
arXiv
bibtex
@unpublished{zhang2026principal,
  author        = {Zhang, Rui and Doss, Charles R. and Huling, Jared D.},
  title         = {Estimation of heterogeneous principal effects under principal ignorability},
  year          = {2026},
  eprint        = {2603.08963},
  archiveprefix = {arXiv},
  note          = {Submitted}
}
causal inference
Likelihood ratio tests for monotonic functions with regions of flatness
Doss, C. R. and VandenBerg, R. O.* (2026). Submitted.
bibtex
@unpublished{doss2026flatness,
  author = {Doss, Charles R. and VandenBerg, R. Oliver},
  title  = {Likelihood ratio tests for monotonic functions with regions of flatness},
  year   = {2026},
  note   = {Submitted}
}
shape constraints
Active sampling for change-point detection
Doss, C. R. and Zhu, Q.† (2025). Submitted.
bibtex
@unpublished{doss2025activesampling,
  author = {Doss, Charles R. and Zhu, Qiuyun},
  title  = {Active sampling for change-point detection},
  year   = {2025},
  note   = {Submitted}
}
changepoint and anomaly detection
Doubly robust estimation and inference for a log-concave counterfactual density
Ham, D.*, Westling, T., and Doss, C. R. (2024). Submitted.
arXiv
bibtex
@unpublished{ham2024counterfactual,
  author        = {Ham, Daeyoung and Westling, Ted and Doss, Charles R.},
  title         = {Doubly robust estimation and inference for a log-concave counterfactual density},
  year          = {2024},
  eprint        = {2403.19917},
  archiveprefix = {arXiv},
  note          = {Submitted}
}
causal inference shape constraints density estimation

In preparation

Confidence bands for a continuous treatment effect curve based on shape constraints
Doss, C. R. and VandenBerg, R. O.*. In preparation.
bibtex
@unpublished{doss-vandenberg-bands,
  author = {Doss, Charles R. and VandenBerg, R. Oliver},
  title  = {Confidence bands for a continuous treatment effect curve based on shape constraints},
  note   = {In preparation}
}
causal inference shape constraints
Discrete choice experimental design using a tournament framework
Albrecht, T. A.*, Doss, C. R., and Nachtsheim, C. J.. In preparation.
code
bibtex
@unpublished{albrecht-doss-nachtsheim-design,
  author = {Albrecht, Thomas A. and Doss, Charles R. and Nachtsheim, Christopher J.},
  title  = {Discrete choice experimental design using a tournament framework},
  note   = {In preparation}
}
experimental design
Inference for the argmax of a concave function
Ham, D.* and Doss, C. R.. In preparation.
bibtex
@unpublished{ham-doss-argmax,
  author = {Ham, Daeyoung and Doss, Charles R.},
  title  = {Inference for the argmax of a concave function},
  note   = {In preparation}
}
shape constraints
Nonparametric changepoint detection for multivariate distributions using optimal transportation
Doss, C. R. and Ouyang, D.*. In preparation.
bibtex
@unpublished{doss-ouyang-ot-changepoint,
  author = {Doss, Charles R. and Ouyang, Difan},
  title  = {Nonparametric changepoint detection for multivariate distributions using optimal transportation},
  note   = {In preparation}
}
changepoint and anomaly detection
On the asymptotics of convex stochastic optimization
Doss, C. R. and Geyer, C. J.. In preparation.
bibtex
@unpublished{doss-geyer-convex,
  author = {Doss, Charles R. and Geyer, Charles J.},
  title  = {On the asymptotics of convex stochastic optimization},
  note   = {In preparation}
}

Interdisciplinary and scientific publications

Viral lineage features can enhance the detection of COVID-19 surges via machine learning
Ouyang, D.*, Morris, K. J., Osborn, M. J., Schacker, T. W., and Doss, C. R. (2026). To appear in AJE Advances.
bibtex
@article{ouyang2026lineage,
  author  = {Ouyang, Difan and Morris, Keeley J. and Osborn, Mark J. and Schacker, Timothy W. and Doss, Charles R.},
  title   = {Viral lineage features can enhance the detection of {COVID-19} surges via machine learning},
  journal = {AJE Advances},
  year    = {2026}
}
wastewater epidemiology
Wastewater measures of SARS-CoV-2 accurately predict frequency of symptomatic infections in the community
Doss, C. R., Osborn, M. J., Stark, S., Rhein, J., Donkersgoed, J., Budde, D., Champeau, S., Meyer, C., Hayden, M., Landini, L., Ouyang, D.*, Chung, L., Tang, Y., Vetter, S., and Schacker, T. W. (2025). The Journal of Infectious Diseases, 232(3):e459–e465.
journal
bibtex
@article{doss2025wastewaterjid,
  author  = {Doss, Charles R. and Osborn, Mark J. and Stark, Stacey and Rhein, Joshua and Donkersgoed, Jacalynn and Budde, Donna and Champeau, Shannon and Meyer, Carolyn and Hayden, Mason and Landini, Laura and Ouyang, Difan and Chung, Lappui and Tang, Yi and Vetter, Sara and Schacker, Timothy W.},
  title   = {Wastewater measures of {SARS-CoV-2} accurately predict frequency of symptomatic infections in the community},
  journal = {The Journal of Infectious Diseases},
  year    = {2025},
  volume  = {232},
  number  = {3},
  pages   = {e459--e465},
  doi     = {10.1093/infdis/jiaf242}
}
wastewater epidemiology
Wastewater surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 in Minnesota
Osborn, M. J., Champeau, S., Meyer, C., Hayden, M., Landini, L., Stark, S., Preekett, S., Vetter, S., Zirnhelt, Z., Meyer, S., Huff, D., Schacker, T. W., and Doss, C. R. (2024). Water, 16(4):541.
journal
bibtex
@article{osborn2024wastewater,
  author  = {Osborn, Mark J. and Champeau, Shannon and Meyer, Carolyn and Hayden, Mason and Landini, Laura and Stark, Stacey and Preekett, Stephanie and Vetter, Sara and Zirnhelt, Zachary and Meyer, Stephanie and Huff, Daniel and Schacker, Timothy W. and Doss, Charles R.},
  title   = {Wastewater surveillance of {SARS-CoV-2} in {Minnesota}},
  journal = {Water},
  year    = {2024},
  volume  = {16},
  number  = {4},
  pages   = {541},
  doi     = {10.3390/w16040541}
}
wastewater epidemiology
Observations on abundance of bluntnose sixgill sharks, Hexanchus griseus, in an urban waterway in Puget Sound, 2003–2005
Griffing, D., Larson, S., Hollander, J., Carpenter, T., Christiansen, J., and Doss, C. R. (2014). PLoS ONE, 9(1):e87081.
journal
bibtex
@article{griffing2014sharks,
  author  = {Griffing, Dave and Larson, Shawn and Hollander, Joel and Carpenter, Tim and Christiansen, Jeff and Doss, Charles R.},
  title   = {Observations on abundance of bluntnose sixgill sharks, \emph{Hexanchus griseus}, in an urban waterway in {Puget Sound}, 2003--2005},
  journal = {PLoS ONE},
  year    = {2014},
  volume  = {9},
  number  = {1},
  pages   = {e87081},
  doi     = {10.1371/journal.pone.0087081}
}
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